Once you've mastered the technical basics, it's important to clarify a few things for yourself. Do you want to approach this professionally, or is it just weekend entertainment for you? Either way, you don't want to become your own money's enemy, after all, you've worked hard for it.
We'll try to summarize some unwritten rules, such as excluding emotions or managing your success, which can certainly reduce the likelihood of losing bets.
- Use Money Management!
The foundation of successful sports betting is long-term thinking, so you shouldn't risk all your money on a single bet. Divide it and prepare for periods when your predictions are less successful. - Follow a Betting Strategy!
You can choose from various systems, but whichever you decide on, it's important to give it time! A sufficient sample size is needed to determine effectiveness. - Only spend on sports betting what you can afford without worry!
Be very careful about this because it's best to think of your bankroll as a tool. If you stress about money amounts, for example, so your partner doesn't notice the shortage, you'll make bad decisions. You should bring as little emotion as possible into betting and also eliminate the need to win. - A successful ticket with low odds is better than a lost bet.
It can be very tempting for everyone to put together an accumulator bet that could win 2,000 EUR from 10 euros! The emphasis is conditional because this rarely happens. We advise you to only place single bets! - Only spend as much time on sports betting as you can afford in normal circumstances.
You can get really hooked on this whole thing, and you may find yourself obsessively betting on live ping-pong while your family enjoys a movie carefree. - Never let your account be empty!
You never know when the divine spark will come to place a bet, and at such times, you may not have time for a deposit. - Always track the results of your tips!
If you don't write it down, you won't see where you stand overall. Logging is not only good for tracking your success but also for filtering by sports over time. For example, due to some major successful odds, you might think you understand ice hockey, but when you look at your own statistics, you'll see that you're only generating losses with it, while you're successful in tennis betting.
Here's another idea: keep a journal about your bets! On the one hand, you'll see your success rate, and on the other hand, you can track how much money you've spent on betting.
Selection Rules for Successful Betting
Choosing tips may seem easy at first glance, but it is the alpha and omega of sports betting. This is where the vast majority fail because you can have the best and most thoughtful strategy and manage your money perfectly, but if your tips are not good, you'll struggle.
Every bettor strives to bet on events that are most likely to bring them profit. How do you choose a prediction for yourself? You might ask. We'll try to list some rules to consider.
- Never Decide Based Solely on Odds!
For example, don't bet on Barcelona to win just because the odds are 1.20, so it's likely to happen. Only bet on them if you believe they will win based on available information (e.g., form, tactics, injuries, etc.). - Exclude Emotions!
Don't bet on Bayern's victory just because your favorite player is on the field, and the opposite is true as well. Do you hate the current Catalan star, so you always bet on Barcelona's defeat? Forget about it, try to think objectively, after all, you're risking your money! - Don't Blindly Follow Others' Tips!
Incorporate others' insights and thoughts into your own opinion, as it can be beneficial. But never bet on a team just because someone else said so without doing your own research first! - Don't Pay for Tips!
Unfortunately, more and more people exploit bettors eager to win and ask for money for their tips. Don't fall for this even if they present winning statistics about themselves because despite rare exceptions, it's almost always a scam! Those who are profitable with their tips don't need to sell them! - Have Reasons for Your Tips!
If you can't explain in a few sentences why you're betting on a particular event, then you don't really know why you're betting. You don't know why you're risking your money! It's important to only try in areas where you feel comfortable and have up-to-date information. Information - as in every aspect of life - is power here too!
Choosing Bets from the Bookmaker's Offer
We've covered many rules and principles, but we haven't yet talked about the specific tricks of selecting tips. Without claiming completeness, here are some selection criteria, primarily applicable to football betting. Since football is the most popular sport in the world of betting, we will focus mainly on it in this introductory article.
- Form and Performance:
Consider the recent form and performance of the teams or players involved. Look at their results in recent matches, both home and away. Teams or players in good form are more likely to continue performing well. - Head-to-Head Records:
Check the head-to-head records between the two teams or players. Some teams or players may have a historical advantage over others, which can influence the outcome of the current match. - Team News:
Stay updated with team news, including injuries, suspensions, and lineup changes. The absence of key players can significantly impact a team's performance. - Home and Away Performance:
Consider the home and away performance of teams. Some teams perform exceptionally well at home but struggle when playing away, and vice versa. - Motivation and Importance of the Match:
Assess the motivation and importance of the match for each team or player. Teams fighting for a title or trying to avoid relegation often show greater determination and commitment. - Weather Conditions:
Take into account weather conditions, especially for outdoor sports. Rain, wind, or extreme temperatures can affect the outcome of a match or the score. - Betting Market Analysis:
Analyze the betting markets and odds offered by the bookmaker. Look for value bets where the odds offered seem higher than they should be based on your analysis. - Avoiding Cup Competitions:
Be cautious when betting on cup competitions, especially in the early stages, as teams may field weaker lineups or prioritize other competitions. - Research and Statistics:
Do thorough research and analyze relevant statistics before making a decision. Utilize websites, forums, and statistical databases to gather insights. - Discipline and Patience:
Exercise discipline and patience in your betting approach. Avoid impulsive decisions and stick to a consistent strategy based on informed analysis.
By considering these factors and applying them to your betting selections, you can improve your chances of making informed and successful bets, particularly in football. Adjust these criteria based on the specific sport or event you are betting on, and always bet responsibly within your means.
What are the odds?
Odds are the probability numbers offered by bookmakers for a certain outcome. In most parts of Europe, decimal odds are common. These make calculations the simplest.
For example, if the odds for an outcome are 1.25, it means that if you bet 100 euros and your bet wins, you will win 125 euros. Your profit in this case would be 25 euros. To calculate the expected winnings, simply multiply the stake by the odds. Every online bookmaker automatically calculates this for you when you enter the stake.
You can find detailed guides on odds and different odds formats.
Team or Player's Current Form
Let's start with the current form, which can be very revealing. Let's see how teams performed in their last 5 matches, as well as how they played against each other. If a team wins 4-5 matches in a row, bookmakers start offering lower odds on them, so it's recommended to look for teams going through similar streaks and catch these series as early as possible at higher odds.
Every team goes through successful and less successful periods. For example, if Schalke performs poorly over several rounds, the odds offered on them increase. However, if improvement is expected, we need to notice this in time, ideally before the bookmakers.
Injured and Suspended Players
The chances of win change significantly if key players are injured or suspended. We need to capitalize on this type of information and extract value from it! In prominent leagues, odds can be adjusted a week or two in advance, and when the bookmaker learns about injuries that significantly affect the match's possible outcome they adjust the odds. You can find such information online - for example, by following teams' Facebook or Twitter/X pages.
The Importance of the Match
Friendly matches have no real stakes, they are mostly for testing tactics, and the coaches consider the final result secondary. Therefore, avoid betting on friendly matches and less important cup matches! For example, English top teams often use players in the League Cup who have fewer opportunities in the championship. This completely changes the odds, and it's easy for an unknown opponent to cause a surprise.
If you still decide to bet on cup matches, it's important to know the lineups, and if it's a two-legged tie, the result of the first match is very revealing. In a season, teams often have to play many matches, so knowing the right first-round result, it's possible that significant players will be rested in the return legs.
Weather and Pitch Quality
Short passing games don't favor rain, but classic English football could be said to require it. On a soaked pitch, technical players find it harder to dribble, and defenders' chances of tackling increase. When the pitch surface differs greatly from the ideal, preliminary expectations and predictions are modified. Our advantage can come from such information, so it's worth keeping track of weather forecasts on match days!
Statistics
A significant portion of sports bettors rely solely on statistics. Since they don't have much time for in-depth and comprehensive analysis, they bet based on a few numbers. In some cases, this may be sufficient, but generally, it's very true that statistics do not provide enough information, and relying solely on them leaves room for error. Conversely, this idea is also true! Without statistics, we won't be successful, so we cannot ignore them!
Motivation
It's mostly true that if a team plays at home in front of their own supporters, they have a higher chance of winning. In a home environment, players have motivation and a desire to win because they want to prove themselves to the fans who support them. Motivation can also be important when a smaller team plays against a bigger one. Due to heightened morale and motivation, players will perform better. This also includes substitutes who, in the limited time they spend on the field, aim to return to the starting lineup.
